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Health

How diseases like smallpox survived long ocean voyages

Modern mathematical tools reveal the conditions pathogens needed to remain active in a ship’s population for the duration of a historical journey

By Rachel Nuwer

23 July 2024

Christopher Columbus’s expedition to the Americas arrived with diseases on board

William J. Aylward/Granger Historical Picture Archive / Alamy

It is common knowledge that microbes hitched rides on long sea voyages like that of Christopher Columbus. But it was never inevitable that diseases like smallpox and measles would survive these early ocean crossings, which took a month or more. Now, researchers have used mathematical modelling to predict the historical risk of pathogens lingering in a ship’s population long enough to disembark with passengers.

“These ships aren’t just carrying a pathogen like it’s an extra piece of cargo – it…

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